Welcome to Goldfinger(s), the data driven Oscar prediction website featuring regularly updated predictions in every feature category at the Academy Awards! I created Goldfinger(s): to provide an easily digestible breakdown of not only who I think will win, but also why. I want to pull back the curtain of Oscar predictions, so that you can see what the experts are really looking at, and then make your own choices.
HOW DO I MAKE MY PREDICTIONS?
For every category, I’m looking at a few factors:
- Outside Wins
- Outside Nominations
Wins and Nominations are exactly what they sound like: wins and nominations by awards relevant to that category. For example, a Screen Actors Guild nomination would count as a Nomination in the Best Actress category. We always list the relevant awards under Sources at the bottom of each prediction page.
Outside Wins and Outside Nominations are wins and nominations by awards that are less relevant to the category, though still indirectly related. For example, a Directors Guild of America win would count as an Outside Win in the Best Picture category, the Best Actor category, and many more.
After compiling all the Wins, Nominations, Outside Wins, and Outside Nominations, I sort the films by those factors in that order and apply common sense as needed. Any manual adjustments that I make to overcome skewed data sorting will always be noted on the prediction page.