Forgive the brevity, but I’m trying to leave myself enough time to get all these predictions posted! Summer of Soul is our predicted winner with 60% of all possible wins and 100% of all possible nominations.
Note: Regarding any ties: our predictions are sorted by Win %, Nomination %, Outside Wins, and Outside Nominations, in that order. In the event of any ties, I am also sorting by Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer at lowest priority to determine physical chart position, though not allowing it to actually break any ties. It has no true bearing on a film’s Oscar chances, but it’s the simplest aggregate of overall critical reception, and it’s less arbitrary than sorting alphabetically by “Film Name” when ties are involved.
DATA
| # | FILM | +/- | WIN % | NOM % | OUT WIN | OUT NOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUMMER OF SOUL (...OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED) | - | 60% | 100% | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | FLEE | +2 | 20% | 80% | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | ATTICA | +2 | 20% | 40% | 0 | 2 |
| 4 | ASCENSION | - | 0% | 60% | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | WRITING WITH FIRE | +1 | 0% | 40% | 0 | 0 |
| FILMS BELOW THIS ROW WERE NOT NOMINATED | ||||||
| 6 | THE RESCUE | -4 | 0% | 80% | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | IN THE SAME BREATH | -1 | 0% | 40% | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | FAYA DAYI | - | 0% | 20% | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | THE FIRST WAVE | - | 0% | 20% | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | SIMPLE AS WATER | - | 0% | 20% | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | PROCESSION | - | 0% | 20% | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | THE VELVET UNDERGROUND | - | 0% | 0% | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | BILLIE EILISH: THE WORLD'S A LITTLE BLURRY | - | 0% | 0% | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | JULIA | - | 0% | 0% | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | PRESIDENT | - | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0 |
SOURCES
- Academy Award Shortlist has been announced.
Note: This determines the eligibility of all films in this category. If it’s not on the shortlist, it can’t be nominated. - Critic’s Choice Documentary Awards – Winners have been announced.
- International Documentary Association Awards – Winners have been announced.
- Producers Guild of America Awards – Winners have been announced.
- Directors Guild of America Awards – Winners have been announced.
- British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards – Winners have been announced.
