Forgive the brevity, but I’m trying to leave myself enough time to get all these predictions posted! Summer of Soul is our predicted winner with 60% of all possible wins and 100% of all possible nominations.
Note: Regarding any ties: our predictions are sorted by Win %, Nomination %, Outside Wins, and Outside Nominations, in that order. In the event of any ties, I am also sorting by Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer at lowest priority to determine physical chart position, though not allowing it to actually break any ties. It has no true bearing on a film’s Oscar chances, but it’s the simplest aggregate of overall critical reception, and it’s less arbitrary than sorting alphabetically by “Film Name” when ties are involved.
|#||FILM||+/-||WIN %||NOM %||OUT WIN||OUT NOM|
|1||SUMMER OF SOUL (...OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED)||-||60%||100%||10||12|
|5||WRITING WITH FIRE||+1||0%||40%||0||0|
|FILMS BELOW THIS ROW WERE NOT NOMINATED|
|7||IN THE SAME BREATH||-1||0%||40%||0||0|
|9||THE FIRST WAVE||-||0%||20%||0||4|
|10||SIMPLE AS WATER||-||0%||20%||0||1|
|12||THE VELVET UNDERGROUND||-||0%||0%||0||9|
|13||BILLIE EILISH: THE WORLD'S A LITTLE BLURRY||-||0%||0%||0||4|
- Academy Award Shortlist has been announced.
Note: This determines the eligibility of all films in this category. If it’s not on the shortlist, it can’t be nominated.
- Critic’s Choice Documentary Awards – Winners have been announced.
- International Documentary Association Awards – Winners have been announced.
- Producers Guild of America Awards – Winners have been announced.
- Directors Guild of America Awards – Winners have been announced.
- British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards – Winners have been announced.