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Forgive the brevity, but I’m trying to leave myself enough time to get all these predictions posted! Summer of Soul is our predicted winner with 60% of all possible wins and 100% of all possible nominations.

Note: Regarding any ties: our predictions are sorted by Win %, Nomination %, Outside Wins, and Outside Nominations, in that order. In the event of any ties, I am also sorting by Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer at lowest priority to determine physical chart position, though not allowing it to actually break any ties. It has no true bearing on a film’s Oscar chances, but it’s the simplest aggregate of overall critical reception, and it’s less arbitrary than sorting alphabetically by “Film Name” when ties are involved.

DATA

# FILM +/- WIN % NOM % OUT WIN OUT NOM
1 SUMMER OF SOUL (...OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED) - 60% 100% 10 12
2 FLEE +2 20% 80% 1 12
3 ATTICA +2 20% 40% 0 2
4 ASCENSION - 0% 60% 0 6
5 WRITING WITH FIRE +1 0% 40% 0 0
FILMS BELOW THIS ROW WERE NOT NOMINATED
6 THE RESCUE -4 0% 80% 4 7
7 IN THE SAME BREATH -1 0% 40% 0 0
8 FAYA DAYI - 0% 20% 2 5
9 THE FIRST WAVE - 0% 20% 0 4
10 SIMPLE AS WATER - 0% 20% 0 1
10 PROCESSION - 0% 20% 0 1
12 THE VELVET UNDERGROUND - 0% 0% 0 9
13 BILLIE EILISH: THE WORLD'S A LITTLE BLURRY - 0% 0% 0 4
14 JULIA - 0% 0% 0 3
15 PRESIDENT - 0% 0% 0 0

SOURCES