BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

In the enduring words of the Black Eyes Peas, “Let’s get it started in hah. Let’s get it started in here.” This post marks our first predictions of the 95th Academy Awards, honoring the year 2022 in film. Is it a little bit early? Maybe, considering we have only the Critics Choice Documentary Awards nominations to go by, but that’s half the fun of these lists: watching contenders rise and fall as we get more nominations. So while the top 10 films sit equal with one nomination each, we are able to place Fire of Love ahead early with 6 outside nominations, all from the Critics Choice Documentary Awards categories. And that’s basically it! We’ll look to the International Documentary Association awards on November 11th to provide some more clarity.

Note: Regarding any ties: our predictions are sorted by Win %, Nomination %, Outside Wins, and Outside Nominations, in that order. In the event of any ties, I am also sorting by Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer at lowest priority to determine physical chart positio. It has no true bearing on a film’s Oscar chances, but it’s the simplest aggregate of overall critical reception, and it’s less arbitrary than sorting alphabetically by “Film Name” when ties are involved.

DATA

# FILM +/- WIN % NOM % OUT WIN OUT NOM
1 FIRE OF LOVE - 0% 20% 0 6
2 GOOD NIGHT OPPY - 0% 20% 0 5
3 NAVALNY - 0% 20% 0 4
3 MOONAGE DAYDREAM - 0% 20% 0 4
5 THE JANES - 0% 20% 0 3
FILMS BELOW THIS ROW ARE NOT PREDICTED TO BE NOMINATED
5 THE AUTOMAT - 0% 20% 0 3
7 DESCENDANT - 0% 20% 0 2
7 SIDNEY - 0% 20% 0 2
9 GABBY GIFFORDS WON'T BACK DOWN - 0% 20% 0 1
9 AFTERSHOCK - 0% 20% 0 1
11 THREE MINUTES: A LENGTHENING - 0% 0% 0 5
12 THE TERRITORY - 0% 0% 0 3
12 COW - 0% 0% 0 3
12 LUCY AND DESI - 0% 0% 0 3
15 ALL THAT BREATHES - 0% 0% 0 2

SOURCES

  • Oscar Shortlist – Shortlists announced 12/21/22.
    Note: This determined the eligibility of all films. If it’s not on the shortlist, it can’t be nominated.
  • Critic’s Choice Documentary AwardsNominations have been announced. Winners announced 11/13/22
  • International Documentary Association Awards – Nominations announced 11/11/22. Winners announced 12/10/22.
  • Producers Guild Awards – Nominations announced 12/12/22. Winners announced 2/25/22
  • Directors Guild of America Awards – Nominations announced 1/21/22. Winners announced 2/18/22.
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards Winners announced 2/19/22.