BEST FILM EDITING

WE’RE CALLING AN AUDIBLE! This category is an absolute mess, with half the films that have actually won precursor awards missing the Oscar nomination entirely. From the films that did make the cut, Dune was nominated by all three precursor awards, but failed to win a single one. The films that did win at least one, King Richard and Tick, Tick… Boom!, were only nominated by the Eddie Awards in the split categories (Drama and Comedy). By our typical sorting strategy, which prioritizes wins over nominations and counts outside wins and nominations when there is a tie, Tick, Tick.. Boom! would be the the predicted winner with 2 more outside nominations than King Richard… but it just does not seem likely that it would win. Especially considering that it only won for Best Comedy Editing in a relatively weak field that only featured one other Oscar nominee. King Richard, on the other hand, did win in a more competitive category that featured two other Oscar nominees, including Dune. This proves that King Richard had a slight edge over Dune in the American Cinema Editors guild, which shares some voters with the Oscars. So I’m choosing to ignore the outside nomination counts and push King Richard to the top. Dune has a strong case based on the nominations, but without winning a single one I’m not comfortable pushing it any higher than it already was on my chart.

Note: Standard Win % and Nomination % are based on the maximum 3 qualifying awards a film in this category can win or be nominated for. In cases of ineligibility, the maximum # is lower and the % is adjusted accordingly.

Summer of Soul – 3 Qualifying Awards (ineligible for main Eddie awards as a documentary)

Regarding any ties: our predictions are sorted by Win %, Nomination %, Outside Wins, and Outside Nominations, in that order. In the event of any ties, I am also sorting by Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer at lowest priority to determine physical chart position, though not allowing it to actually break any ties. It has no true bearing on a film’s Oscar chances, but it’s the simplest aggregate of overall critical reception, and it’s less arbitrary than sorting alphabetically by “Film Name” when ties are involved.

DATA

# FILM +/- WIN % NOM % OUT WIN OUT NOM
1 KING RICHARD +9 33% 33% 0 4
2 TICK, TICK...BOOM! +6 33% 33% 0 6
3 DUNE -2 0% 100% 7 18
4 THE POWER OF THE DOG - 0% 67% 8 12
5 DON'T LOOK UP +3 0% 33% 0 6
FILMS BELOW THIS ROW WERE NOT NOMINATED
6 NO TIME TO DIE -1 33% 67% 0 5
7 WEST SIDE STORY - 33% 33% 1 8
8 BELFAST -6 0% 100% 1 11
9 LICORICE PIZZA -6 0% 100% 1 9
10 SUMMER OF SOUL (...OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED) -4 0% 50% 12 14
11 THE FRENCH DISPATCH OF THE LIBERTY, KANSAS EVENING SUN - 0% 33% 0 1
12 CRUELLA - 0% 33% 0 0

SOURCES