BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

This is a strange category here. Coming 2 America was nominated for 60% of the possible awards, and it won every award it was nominated for. The only problem is that every nomination and win came from the Make-Up & Hairstylist Guild Awards. As a result, many other sources are predicting Tammy Faye or Cruella instead, which have less wins but more nominations (and from more than one award show). I see the argument, but I’m not so easily swayed. If you’re going to win any awards, the guilds are a great place to start, as they share voters with the Oscars in a way that the Critics Choice and BAFTAs do not. And though Coming 2 America did not compete against either film when there were genre splits, it did beat Tammy for special effects make-up. The data could lead us in a few directions here, but I’m following the wins. Coming 2 America is our predicted winner.

Note: Regarding any ties: our predictions are sorted by Win %, Nomination %, Outside Wins, and Outside Nominations, in that order. In the event of any ties, I am also sorting by Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer at lowest priority to determine physical chart position, though not allowing it to actually break any ties. It has no true bearing on a film’s Oscar chances, but it’s the simplest aggregate of overall critical reception, and it’s less arbitrary than sorting alphabetically by “Film Name” when ties are involved.

DATA

# FILM +/- WIN % NOM % OUT WIN OUT NOM
1 COMING 2 AMERICA +4 60% 60% 1 1
2 THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE - 40% 100% 2 3
3 CRUELLA +1 20% 80% 3 5
4 HOUSE OF GUCCI -3 0% 100% 0 10
5 DUNE -2 0% 80% 4 14
FILMS BELOW THIS ROW WERE NOT NOMINATED
6 THE SUICIDE SQUAD -1 0% 60% 0 1
7 NO TIME TO DIE - 0% 40% 1 3
8 WEST SIDE STORY - 0% 20% 5 21
9 NIGHTMARE ALLEY - 0% 20% 1 10
10 CYRANO - 0% 20% 0 7

SOURCES

  • Academy Award Shortlist has been announced.
    Note: This determines the eligibility of all films in this category. If it’s not on the shortlist, it can’t be nominated.
  • Critics Choice AwardsWinners have been announced.
  • Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild AwardsWinners have been announced.
    Note: The Make-Up and Hair Stylists Guild nominate in five major categories: Contemporary Hair, Contemporary Make-Up. Period and/or Character Hair, Period and/or Character Make-Up, and Special Make-Up Effects. In certain cases(time travel films) a film could be nominated for all five, but in most cases three MUAH nominations would the best case scenario, for a total of five with CC and BAFTA. So for our purposes, each MUAH nomination counts as 1 of 5 possible nominations (rather than each being 1 of 7).
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts AwardsWinners have been announced.