Forgive the brevity, but I’m trying to leave myself enough time to get all these predictions posted! Dune is our predicted winner with 100% of all possible nominations and wins. Hans Zimmer should easily take home the gold tonight.
Note: Regarding any ties: our predictions are sorted by Win %, Nomination %, Outside Wins, and Outside Nominations, in that order. In the event of any ties, I am also sorting by Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer at lowest priority to determine physical chart position, though not allowing it to actually break any ties. It has no true bearing on a film’s Oscar chances, but it’s the simplest aggregate of overall critical reception, and it’s less arbitrary than sorting alphabetically by “Film Name” when ties are involved.
DATA
| # | FILM | +/- | WIN % | NOM % | OUT WIN | OUT NOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DUNE | - | 100% | 100% | 3 | 11 |
| 2 | DON'T LOOK UP | - | 25% | 75% | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | THE POWER OF THE DOG | - | 0% | 100% | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | ENCANTO | +1 | 0% | 25% | 5 | 8 |
| 5 | PARALLEL MOTHERS | +3 | 0% | 25% | 0 | 2 |
| FILMS BELOW THIS ROW WERE NOT NOMINATED | ||||||
| 6 | THE FRENCH DISPATCH OF THE LIBERTY, KANSAS EVENING SUN | -2 | 0% | 75% | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | KING RICHARD | -1 | 0% | 25% | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | NO TIME TO DIE | -1 | 0% | 25% | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH | - | 0% | 25% | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | BEING THE RICARDOS | - | 0% | 25% | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | THE GREEN KNIGHT | - | 0% | 25% | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | THE LAST DUEL | - | 0% | 25% | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | SPENCER | - | 0% | 25% | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | THE HARDER THEY FALL | - | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | CANDYMAN | - | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0 |
SOURCES
- Academy Award Shortlist has been announced.
Note: This determines the eligibility of all films in this category. If it’s not on the shortlist, it can’t be nominated. - Hollywood Music in Media Awards – Winners have been announced.
Note: The Hollywood Music in Media Awards nominate scores for Feature Film, Independent Film, Animated Film, Sci-Fi/Fantasy Film, Horror Film, and Documentary Film. For our purposes, we count all nominations equally as 1 of 4 possible nomination categories (rather than each being 1 of 9) - Golden Globe Awards – Winners have been announced.
- Critics Choice Awards – Winners have been announced.
- British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards – Winners have been announced.
