BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

With the awards season really ramping up, wins and nominations are piling up all around. For the next few days our updates will be purely focused on ordering the lists to ensure we have enough time to make predictions in every category before the Oscars announce their nominations on Tuesday, February 8th. I do have a day job, you know… Anyway, our witty write-ups will be back next week as we digest the nominations and analyze how we did!

Note: Standard Win % and Nomination % are based on the maximum 4 qualifying awards a film in this category can win or be nominated for. In cases of ineligibility, the maximum # is lower and the % is adjusted accordingly.

Belfast – 3 Qualifying Awards (ineligible for WGA)

Regarding any ties: our predictions are sorted by Win %, Nomination %, Outside Wins, and Outside Nominations, in that order. In the event of any ties, I am also sorting by Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer at lowest priority to determine physical chart position, though not allowing it to actually break any ties. It has no true bearing on a film’s Oscar chances, but it’s the simplest aggregate of overall critical reception, and it’s less arbitrary than sorting alphabetically by “Film Name” when ties are involved.

DATA

# FILM +/- WIN % NOM % OUT WIN OUT NOM
1 BELFAST 33% 100% 0 18
2 BEING THE RICARDOS 0% 100% 1 7
3 LICORICE PIZZA 0% 100% 0 13
4 DON'T LOOK UP 0% 100% 0 11
5 KING RICHARD 0% 75% 1 13
FILMS BELOW THIS ROW ARE NOT PREDICTED TO BE NOMINATED
6 THE FRENCH DISPATCH OF THE LIBERTY, KANSAS EVENING SUN 0% 25% 0 1

SOURCES