BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Belfast holds fast at #1! Usually a Sorkin screenplay nomination is a safe bet, but The Worst Person in the World made the cut over Being the Ricardos, our previous #2. As a result, everything besides Belfast shifted up a spot to make room. It’s a tenuous lead, as Belfast won 2 of the 3 awards it was eligible for, while Licorice Pizza and Don’t Look Up picked up a win each, further solidifying their positions. Belfast is still the predicted winner, but don’t be surprised if either Paul Thomas Anderson or Adam McKay takes home the gold instead.

Note: Standard Win % and Nomination % are based on the maximum 4 qualifying awards a film in this category can win or be nominated for. In cases of ineligibility, the maximum # is lower and the % is adjusted accordingly.

Belfast – 3 Qualifying Awards (ineligible for WGA)

Regarding any ties: our predictions are sorted by Win %, Nomination %, Outside Wins, and Outside Nominations, in that order. In the event of any ties, I am also sorting by Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer at lowest priority to determine physical chart position, though not allowing it to actually break any ties. It has no true bearing on a film’s Oscar chances, but it’s the simplest aggregate of overall critical reception, and it’s less arbitrary than sorting alphabetically by “Film Name” when ties are involved.

DATA

# FILM +/- WIN % NOM % OUT WIN OUT NOM
1 BELFAST - 67% 100% 3 18
2 LICORICE PIZZA +1 25% 100% 1 13
3 DON'T LOOK UP +1 25% 100% 0 11
4 KING RICHARD +1 0% 75% 4 13
5 THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD 0% 0% 0 3
FILMS BELOW THIS ROW WERE NOT NOMINATED
6 BEING THE RICARDOS -4 0% 100% 1 7
7 THE FRENCH DISPATCH OF THE LIBERTY, KANSAS EVENING SUN -1 0% 25% 0 1

SOURCES