Last updated on 01/30/2022

Our first Best Original Song prediction! Yet somehow, it’s already almost over. This category always gets an early start, with Hollywood Music in Media handing out their winners in November, followed by the Golden Globes in early January. Now we’re just waiting for the Critics Choice Awards to let us know if Billie Eillish’s “No Time to Die” from No Time To Die will sweep. If the CC Awards honor Billie, an Oscar win is all but certain. If anything else wins, the edge will still lie with No Time To Die, but the dark horse momentum could make this a competitive race. The only other song with a win, “Beyond the Shore” from CODA, was not nominated by the Golden Globes nor the CC Awards, and is unlikely to serve as spoiler here. However, “Be Alive” from King Richard has yet to miss a nomination in this category and may have a real chance of stealing a win from Billie the kid. Check back after the Critics Choice Awards on February 13th to see what the field looks like!

Note: Regarding any ties: our predictions are sorted by Win %, Nomination %, Outside Wins, and Outside Nominations, in that order. In the event of any ties, I am also sorting by Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer at lowest priority to determine physical chart position, though not allowing it to actually break any ties. It has no true bearing on a film’s Oscar chances, but it’s the simplest aggregate of overall critical reception, and it’s less arbitrary than sorting alphabetically by “Film Name” when ties are involved.