BEST PICTURE

Last updated on 01/10/2022

The first predictions of the year are always the strangest… I have no illusions that Coda, Dune, or Don’t Look Up will be this close to the top when everything shakes out, as they have only been disproportionately bolstered by early Hollywood Music in Media outside wins. Likewise, I would be very surprised to see The Power of the Dog or Belfast not in pole position at this time next month after more wins and nominations have been added to the equation. Yet, this early in the race with only three nominations in the book, and Belfast not eligible for the AFI Top 10 as it was not an American production, this is simply where we are until a true frontrunner emerges.

Looking forward, the Golden Globes love to surprise us, but I would look for Belfast or The Power of the Dog to take Best Picture Drama, and West Side Story seems like a good bet to claim Best Picture Musical/Comedy when the winners are announced on January 9th. After that, we’ll await the Screen Actors Guild nominations on January 12th, as well as a new date for the Critics’ Choice Awards, which was indefinitely postponed amid safety concerns due to the recent Covid-19 surge.

Note: In the past the Academy utilized the single transferable vote system in this category with a minimum of 5 films and a maximum of 10. This year, the Academy has announced that the category will include 10 films.

Standard Win % and Nomination % are based on the maximum 9 qualifying awards a film can be nominated for, of which it can only win a maximum of 8 (AFI does not select a winner from their nominations). In cases of ineligibility, the maximum # of wins and nominations is lower and the % is adjusted accordingly. Known ineligibilities will be listed below.

Belfast – 8 Max Noms, 8 Max Wins (ineligible for AFI nomination)

Regarding any ties: our predictions are sorted by Win %, Nomination %, Outside Wins, and Outside Nominations, in that order. In the event of any ties, I am also sorting by Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer at lowest priority to determine physical chart position, though not allowing it to actually break any ties. It has no true bearing on a film’s Oscar chances, but it’s the simplest aggregate of overall critical reception, and it’s less arbitrary than sorting alphabetically by “Film Name” when ties are involved.

DATA


SOURCES

  • American Film Institute Awards Nominations have been announced.
    Note: AFI nominates 10 top films, but does not select a singular winner. For our purposes, we count these as nominations and not wins.
  • Golden Globe Awards Nominations have been announced. Winners announced 1/9/22.
    Note: The Golden Globes nominate for Best Picture Drama and Best Picture Musical/Comedy. Since a film cannot be nominated in both, we count both together as 1 of 9 possible nomination categories (rather than each being 1 of 10).
  • Critic’s Choice Awards – Nominations have been announced. Ceremony date TBA.
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards – Nominations announced 1/12/22.
    Note: For Best Picture, we use the Best Ensemble Award.
  • American Cinema Editors “Eddie” Awards – Nominations announced 1/21/22.
    Note: The Eddie Awards nominate for Best Edited Feature Film – Dramatic and Best Edited Feature Film – Comedy or Musical. Since a film cannot be nominated in both, we count both together as 1 of 9 possible nomination categories (rather than each being 1 of 10).
  • Writers Guild of America Awards – Nominations announced 1/27/22.
    Note: The WGA nominate for Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay. Since a film cannot be nominated in both, we count both together as 1 of 9 possible nomination categories (rather than each being 1 of 10).
  • Producers Guild of America Awards -Nominations announced 1/27/22.
  • Directors Guild of America Awards – Nominations announced 1/27/22.
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards – Nominations announced 2/3/22.

One Comment

  1. […] you! As predicted in our last Best Picture update, Coda, Dune and Don’t Look Up did not last long at the top. In fact, no sooner than the first […]

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