Troy’s running away with it! Kodi Smit-McPhee may have been the early front-runner following a Golden Globe win and the overall strength of The Power of the Dog this awards season, but Troy Kotsur (CODA) has swept every Supporting Actor award since. There’s a slight chance that Kodi could still win, or even Ciarán Hinds (Belfast) for a real shock, but Troy Kotsur is the clear favorite here. Jesse Plemons and J.K. Simmons probably shouldn’t even prepare a speech. Troy was already the first deaf male actor to receive an Oscar nomination, and the signs are pointing to him being the first to win, as well.

Note: Regarding any ties: our predictions are sorted by Win %, Nomination %, Outside Wins, and Outside Nominations, in that order. In the event of any ties, I am also sorting by Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer at lowest priority to determine physical chart position, though not allowing it to actually break any ties. It has no true bearing on a film’s Oscar chances, but it’s the simplest aggregate of overall critical reception, and it’s less arbitrary than sorting alphabetically by “Film Name” when ties are involved.