Forgive the brevity, but this award was always going to Dune, and nothing has changed. Dune pulled off a clean sweep of every Visual Effects precursor award and is all but guaranteed to take home the Oscar tonight. If anything else wins, it will be a shocking upset. Bet on Dune.
Note: Regarding any ties: our predictions are sorted by Win %, Nomination %, Outside Wins, and Outside Nominations, in that order. In the event of any ties, I am also sorting by Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer at lowest priority to determine physical chart position, though not allowing it to actually break any ties. It has no true bearing on a film’s Oscar chances, but it’s the simplest aggregate of overall critical reception, and it’s less arbitrary than sorting alphabetically by “Film Name” when ties are involved.
DATA
| # | FILM | +/- | WIN % | NOM % | OUT WIN | OUT NOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DUNE | - | 100% | 100% | 7 | 23 |
| 2 | NO TIME TO DIE | - | 0% | 100% | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | SHANG-CHI AND THE LEGEND OF THE TEN RINGS | +1 | 0% | 67% | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME | +1 | 0% | 33% | 1 | 2 |
| 5 | FREE GUY | +2 | 0% | 33% | 0 | 1 |
| FILMS BELOW THIS ROW WERE NOT NOMINATED | ||||||
| 6 | THE MATRIX RESURRECTIONS | -3 | 0% | 100% | 0 | 2 |
| 7 | GODZILLA VS. KONG | - | 0% | 33% | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | GHOSTBUSTERS: AFTERLIFE | -1 | 0% | 33% | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | BLACK WIDOW | - | 0% | 0% | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | ETERNALS | - | 0% | 0% | 0 | 1 |
SOURCES
- Academy Award Shortlist has been announced.
Note: This determines the eligibility of all films in this category. If it’s not on the shortlist, it can’t be nominated. - Critics Choice Awards – Winners have been announced.
- Visual Effects Society – Winners have been announced.
- British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards – Winners have been announced.
