Forgive the brevity, but this award was always going to Dune, and nothing has changed. Dune pulled off a clean sweep of every Visual Effects precursor award and is all but guaranteed to take home the Oscar tonight. If anything else wins, it will be a shocking upset. Bet on Dune.
Note: Regarding any ties: our predictions are sorted by Win %, Nomination %, Outside Wins, and Outside Nominations, in that order. In the event of any ties, I am also sorting by Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer at lowest priority to determine physical chart position, though not allowing it to actually break any ties. It has no true bearing on a film’s Oscar chances, but it’s the simplest aggregate of overall critical reception, and it’s less arbitrary than sorting alphabetically by “Film Name” when ties are involved.
|#||FILM||+/-||WIN %||NOM %||OUT WIN||OUT NOM|
|2||NO TIME TO DIE||-||0%||100%||2||6|
|3||SHANG-CHI AND THE LEGEND OF THE TEN RINGS||+1||0%||67%||1||6|
|4||SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME||+1||0%||33%||1||2|
|FILMS BELOW THIS ROW WERE NOT NOMINATED|
|6||THE MATRIX RESURRECTIONS||-3||0%||100%||0||2|
|7||GODZILLA VS. KONG||-||0%||33%||0||2|
- Academy Award Shortlist has been announced.
Note: This determines the eligibility of all films in this category. If it’s not on the shortlist, it can’t be nominated.
- Critics Choice Awards – Winners have been announced.
- Visual Effects Society – Winners have been announced.
- British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards – Winners have been announced.