Last updated on 09/18/2022
Wow! The Oscars were a HIT this year! CODA winning Best Picture wasn’t even the biggest surprise of the night, considering Will Smith literally slapped Chris Rock on stage for making a joke about his wife… And then WENT BACK ON STAGE TO ACCEPT THE AWARD FOR BEST ACTOR! Truly the wildest Oscars we’ve seen since La La Land was incorrectly announced as the Best Picture winner. But you’re here for results, so let’s get to them!
Overall, I only had 4 incorrect predictions for an 82.61% success rate! And one of those was Best Animated Short, which we don’t officially predict here due to a lack of reliable data. Statistically that makes this one of my better years, although it is hard to view it that way when missing Best Picture. For reference, my previous success rates were 78.26% in 2021, 70.83% in 2020, 62.5% in 2019, and 95.83% in 2018. Take a look below to see how we did in each category!
BEST PICTURE
INCORRECT
NOMINEES
Belfast
Coda
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
PREDICTED WINNER
The Power of the Dog
WINNER
Coda
WHERE WE WENT WRONG
Trust the momentum! CODA may not have taken the lead in total nominations or wins, but it continued to win big awards late in the season, signaling real campaign momentum. I thought The Power of the Dog had enough staying power to win the night, especially paired with a guaranteed Best Director win. Hard to go against the data, but these awards are voted on by people, and sometimes you have to just trust the momentum!
BEST ACTRESS
CORRECT
NOMINEES
Nicole Kidman
Being the Ricardos
Jessica Chastain
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman
The Lost Daughter
Penélope Cruz
Parallel Mothers
Kristen Stewart
Spencer
PREDICTED WINNER
Jessica Chastain
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
WINNER
Jessica Chastain
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
CORRECT
NOMINEES
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World
PREDICTED WINNER
Belfast
WINNER
Belfast
BEST FILM EDITING
INCORRECT
NOMINEES
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Tick, Tick…Boom!
PREDICTED WINNER
King Richard
WINNER
Dune
WHERE WE WENT WRONG
Never doubt the Dune! Dune had all of the nominations, but none of the wins. King Richard had a win but very few nominations. We went with King Richard since it had already won over Dune at the Eddie awards, but I did not feel overly confident about any of the choices.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
CORRECT
NOMINEES
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
PREDICTED WINNER
Cruella
WINNER
Cruella
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
CORRECT
NOMINEES
Be Alive
King Richard
Dos Oruguitas
Encanto
Down to Joy
Belfast
No Time To Die
No Time to Die
Somehow You Do
Four Good Days
PREDICTED WINNER
No Time To Die
No Time to Die
WINNER
No Time To Die
No Time to Die
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
CORRECT
NOMINEES
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing With Fire
PREDICTED WINNER
Summer of Soul
WINNER
Summer of Soul
BEST DIRECTOR
CORRECT
NOMINEES
Kenneth Branagh
Belfast
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Drive My Car
Paul Thomas Anderson
Licorice Pizza
Jane Campion
The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg
West Side Story
PREDICTED WINNER
Jane Campion
The Power of the Dog
WINNER
Jane Campion
The Power of the Dog
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
CORRECT
NOMINEES
J.K. Simmons
Being the Ricardos
Ciarán Hinds
Belfast
Troy Kotsur
CODA
Jesse Plemons
The Power of the Dog
Kodi Smit-McPhee
The Power of the Dog
PREDICTED WINNER
Troy Kotsur
CODA
WINNER
Troy Kotsur
CODA
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CORRECT
NOMINEES
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
PREDICTED WINNER
CODA
WINNER
CODA
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
CORRECT
NOMINEES
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
PREDICTED WINNER
Dune
WINNER
Dune
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
INCORRECT
NOMINEES
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
PREDICTED WINNER
Coming 2 America
WINNER
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
WHERE WE WENT WRONG
This category was all about priorities. Sorting priorities, that is. Because we favor Win % over Nomination %, we went with Coming 2 America, which swept the MUAH awards despite missing nominations from Critics Choice and BAFTA. Tammy Faye, however, was nominated by everything and won Critics Choice and BAFTA. Lesson learned.
BEST SOUND
CORRECT
NOMINEES
Belfast
Dune
No Time To Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
PREDICTED WINNER
Dune
WINNER
Dune
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
CORRECT
NOMINEES
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
The Worst Person in the World
PREDICTED WINNER
Drive My Car
WINNER
Drive My Car
BEST ACTOR
CORRECT
NOMINEES
Javier Bardem
Being the Ricardos
Will Smith
King Richard
Benedict Cumberbatch
The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield
Tick, Tick…Boom!
Denzel Washington
The Tragedy of Macbeth
PREDICTED WINNER
Will Smith
King Richard
WINNER
Will Smith
King Richard
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
CORRECT
NOMINEES
Judi Dench
Belfast
Aunjanue Ellis
King Richard
Jessie Buckley
The Lost Daughter
Kirsten Dunst
The Power of the Dog
Ariana DeBose
West Side Story
PREDICTED WINNER
Ariana DeBose
West Side Story
WINNER
Ariana DeBose
West Side Story
BEST
CINEMATOGRAPHY
CORRECT
NOMINEES
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
PREDICTED WINNER
Dune
WINNER
Dune
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
CORRECT
NOMINEES
Dune
Free Guy
No Time To Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
PREDICTED WINNER
Dune
WINNER
Dune
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
CORRECT
NOMINEES
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
PREDICTED WINNER
Dune
WINNER
Dune
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
CORRECT
NOMINEES
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
PREDICTED WINNER
Encanto
WINNER
Encanto
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
CORRECT
NOMINEES
Audible
Lead Me Home
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
PREDICTED WINNER
The Queen of Basketball
WINNER
The Queen of Basketball
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
INCORRECT
NOMINEES
Affairs of the Art
Bestia
Boxballet
Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper
PREDICTED WINNER
Robin Robin
WINNER
The Windshield Wiper
WHERE WE WENT WRONG
We don’t officially predict the shorts categories, because I have not sourced any reliable awards in the shorts categories. But there’s usually a pretty heavy consensus amongst critics who watched everything in the category, and I go with that just to have a full sheet. So, this one isn’t my fault!
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
CORRECT
NOMINEES
Ala Kachuu – Take and Run
The Dress
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold
PREDICTED WINNER
The Long Goodbye
WINNER
The Long Goodbye
