This is a strange category here. Coming 2 America was nominated for 60% of the possible awards, and it won every award it was nominated for. The only problem is that every nomination and win came from the Make-Up & Hairstylist Guild Awards. As a result, many other sources are predicting Tammy Faye or Cruella instead, which have less wins but more nominations (and from more than one award show). I see the argument, but I’m not so easily swayed. If you’re going to win any awards, the guilds are a great place to start, as they share voters with the Oscars in a way that the Critics Choice and BAFTAs do not. And though Coming 2 America did not compete against either film when there were genre splits, it did beat Tammy for special effects make-up. The data could lead us in a few directions here, but I’m following the wins. Coming 2 America is our predicted winner.
Note: Regarding any ties: our predictions are sorted by Win %, Nomination %, Outside Wins, and Outside Nominations, in that order. In the event of any ties, I am also sorting by Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer at lowest priority to determine physical chart position, though not allowing it to actually break any ties. It has no true bearing on a film’s Oscar chances, but it’s the simplest aggregate of overall critical reception, and it’s less arbitrary than sorting alphabetically by “Film Name” when ties are involved.
DATA
| # | FILM | +/- | WIN % | NOM % | OUT WIN | OUT NOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | COMING 2 AMERICA | +4 | 60% | 60% | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE | - | 40% | 100% | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | CRUELLA | +1 | 20% | 80% | 3 | 5 |
| 4 | HOUSE OF GUCCI | -3 | 0% | 100% | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | DUNE | -2 | 0% | 80% | 4 | 14 |
| FILMS BELOW THIS ROW WERE NOT NOMINATED | ||||||
| 6 | THE SUICIDE SQUAD | -1 | 0% | 60% | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | NO TIME TO DIE | - | 0% | 40% | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | WEST SIDE STORY | - | 0% | 20% | 5 | 21 |
| 9 | NIGHTMARE ALLEY | - | 0% | 20% | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | CYRANO | - | 0% | 20% | 0 | 7 |
SOURCES
- Academy Award Shortlist has been announced.
Note: This determines the eligibility of all films in this category. If it’s not on the shortlist, it can’t be nominated. - Critics Choice Awards – Winners have been announced.
- Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild Awards – Winners have been announced.
Note: The Make-Up and Hair Stylists Guild nominate in five major categories: Contemporary Hair, Contemporary Make-Up. Period and/or Character Hair, Period and/or Character Make-Up, and Special Make-Up Effects. In certain cases(time travel films) a film could be nominated for all five, but in most cases three MUAH nominations would the best case scenario, for a total of five with CC and BAFTA. So for our purposes, each MUAH nomination counts as 1 of 5 possible nominations (rather than each being 1 of 7). - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards – Winners have been announced.
